A Matter Of The Truth

The impeachment trial against CJ Corona is a contrast in strategy, (hair and legal) style, and substance, boys against men, students against professors.

In one corner are the young guns of the House led by Rep. Tupas. His opening declamation may not have reached the heights expected of the occasion (he should have done it in the vernacular) but what it lacked in loft (I had to google his reference to ”a mess of potage”) it made up in earnestness: They will be taking the high moral ground.

 In the other corner are the wizened warriors of the Defense led by ex-Justice Serafin Cuevas and De Los Angeles. Their tone is scholarly and legalistic.The Defense is gearing for a ground war to be fought in the trenches, mano-a-mano.

 The Offense will concentrate on the CJ’s ties to GMA and hidden wealth, the stuff the public can relate to; the Defense the collegial nature of the SC. The Offense will argue the moral case, the Defense the legal one. The Offense will address the nation, the Defense the law books.

 As presiding officer, Sen. Enrile is tasked with clearing the legal deck, setting the pace, maintaining the decorum, ruling on proceedings, and managing his fellow jurors while remaining impartial. Viewers are latching onto his every word for his inclinations.

 He just loves it.

 JPE owns the show and could be its star. This is his swan song. His opening statement displayed his keen awareness of the legal issues and, more important, the historical context of the proceedings. So far he has been fair, firm and final. His rulings are not appealable except when the house is divided by a contrary opinion. Even then he is in charge. Most of the Senators are non-lawyers so they will abide by his technical pronouncements. He is also the Senate President so his colleagues will avoid putting him in a bad light. Sen. Alan Cayetano questioned his decision on the matter of putting the CJ’s family on the stand. He was outvoted 14-6. Alan will be more circumspect the next time around.

 The danger is that, uncontested, JPE may overreach in his rulings. He may already have done so when he proclaimed private prosecutors will not be allowed to argue the prosecution’s case, only to examine witnesses. This seems unfair. The Defense is composed of legal gladiators who do this for a living, eat litigation for breakfast. The prosecutors are not practicing professionals. They (and by extension the public) are deprived of due process if they cannot engage private lawyers to put their best foot forward.

 Sen. Enrile’s ruling could affect the outcome of the trial over time. The Prosecution is legally outgunned by the Defense. The Day 2 disarray of the Congressmen showed this. With the Prosecution having to distribute its manpower among the 8 counts, we will see a dilution in the quality of its arguments. The Defense, in contrast, has the same star-studded team for all the charges.

 If overreaching is a danger to the Presiding Officer, it is also so to the Prosecution and the Defense.

 In their youthful exuberance, the prosecutors must be mindful of presenting evidence that is fully formed, of not overselling and of not winging the legal arguments. This case will not be won on moral testosterone alone.

 On the other hand, the Defense must not overplay its obstructionism nor gloat over the travails of its young opponents, not on national TV. The people see right through it.

 Which brings us to the crux of the matter.

 The question before this tribunal is whether it is a legal exercise or a search for the truth. The Defense sees it as the former, the public as the latter. Enrile is halfway, asking the jurors to weigh the law but also “their moral conviction”.

 The dichotomy is already evident. On charge #2, the non-disclosure of the SALN, the Defense claims the filing of the CJ’s SALNs with the SC clerk of court complies with the Constitution. It also believes the charge of ill-gotten wealth is not specified in the Articles and therefore inadmissible.

  Surely the purpose of the Constitutional provision is for public officials to correctly disclose their financial worth and not to simply file a piece of paper. In this sense, Article 2, even as worded, is actionable if the SALN is defined not as a document but as a measure of one’s financial standing.  To improperly disclose one’s means –and this is the gist of the accusation- is a presumption of ill-gotten wealth. The charges and sub-charges in Art. 2 are therefore not separate (as suggested by Sen. Escudero) but elements of one narrative.

 The rule of law often leads to the truth but not always. So in setting the table, if the purpose is indeed to honor the public interest, the court should be guided not by cleverness or technicalities however legal; but how the proceedings can best unearth the veracity of the allegations.

 The nation is tired of the obfuscation. We just want, simply, to know the truth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Impeachment For Dummies: A Primer

An impeachment is a statement of “verified” charges filed by at least one third (95) of Congressmen. It is not a conviction. Like an indictment in a criminal case, the accused still has to be tried.

The President, VP, Supreme Court Justices, Members of a Constitutional Commission and the Ombudsman can be impeached for “culpable violation of the Constitution, treason, bribery, graft and corruption, other high crimes or violation of public trust”. Only Erap and Ombudsman Gutierrez have ever been impeached.

“Culpable violation of the Constitution” is “the willful disregard of the fundamental law”.

“Other high crimes” are “offenses so serious as to affect the orderly workings of Government” (Ex-Justice Isagani Cruz).

“Betrayal of the public trust” denotes any act unbecoming of a public official such as abuse of authority or neglect of duty.

The other charges are self-explanatory.

The prosecution is represented by 11 Congressmen called Representative-Prosecutors.

An impeachment is a political process not a legal one. Thus, the accused may be “convicted” even if he has not committed a crime: The Senators may simply deem he is unfit to hold his office. Erap was detained because of a Sandiganbayan decision, not because of the impeachment trial.

Two, the prosecutors and Senators are not bound by court rules of procedure and evidence. However they must be fair and consistent.

Three, the Senators, most of them non- lawyers, are expected to vote based on public interest, not necessarily on the law. Their verdict is not appealable.

THE CHARGES

The Articles of Impeachment charge Corona with eight counts:
1. For being partial in cases involving GMA.
2. For non-disclosure of his Statement of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth (SALN).
3. For flip-flopping decisions in final and executory cases (e.g. the PAL Union matter), for his wife holding a Government position and for discussing with litigants cases pending in the SC.
4. For breaching the Constitutional separation of powers by issuing a status quo ante in the impeachment against the Ombudsman Gutierrez.
5. For arbitrariness and for resurrecting decided cases involving the status of 16 newly created cities and promotion of Dinagat Island into a province.
6. For partiality in granting the TRO and related decisions in the GMA travel matter.
7. For improperly exculpating Justice del Castillo in the plagiarism case.
8. For not adequately accounting for the Judiciary Dev. Fund and Special Allowances.

THE DEFENSE

The case for the defense has so far been:
1. The Articles are defective because they have not been “verified” by the 188 signatories as constitutionally required. “Verification” means reading the complaint and affirming the charges based on the evidence.
2. The SC is a collegial body in which the Chief Justice is only one of 15 votes.
3.  As with the other Justices, the CJ has administratively if not “publicly” disclosed his SALNs. Only two, Carpio and Sereno, have publicly disclosed theirs.

“Conviction” on any one charge is sufficient to remove the CJ.

What is the likely outcome of the trial?

A two-thirds vote of the Senate is required to ‘convict”. Since there are only 23 Senators (P-Noy vacated his seat to become President), the magic number is 16 even though, arithmetically, it is 15.33.

Theoretically, the Senators should vote based on the evidence. In fact they will also be swayed by their political affiliations, horse-trading with Malacanang, their financial sponsors (with SC cases), and for those seeking re-election in 2013, P-Noy’s support; and public opinion.

The public seems to favor a conviction because it sees Corona as an extension of GMA.

Below are the 23 Senators (* denotes those to be re-elected in 2013) and the possible body count:

Likely to convict (Administration bloc):
1. Drilon (LP)-
2. Recto (LP)-
3. Guingona III (LP)-
4. Pangilinan* (LP)-

Leaning to convict:
1. Trillanes IV*- Could use P-Noy’s endorsement in 2013.
2. Estrada*- His family and GMA have been at odds.
3. Osmeña III- Investigating reported GMA cronies.
4. Pimentel III*- Believes he was cheated in the 2007 elections.
5. Lacson*- Feuding  with FG.

“Undecided”:
1. Enrile- Will show impartiality as Presiding Officer.
2. Arroyo*- Associated with the opposition NP bloc but you never can tell.
3. Escudero- A past P-Noy ally, he cherishes his independence.
4. Revilla- As far as the public, he can do whatever he wants.
5. Santiago- Administration supported her bid at the International Court but she ran  under the NP in 2010.
6. Sotto- Majority leader of bloc with Enrile, Estrada, Honasan, Trillanes and Lacson. Will they vote as one?
7. Honasan* – Could use P-Noy’s endorsement next year.
8. Angara* – His son, Sonny, is one of the prosecutors.
9. Lapid- Hails from Pampanga.

Leaning to acquit (Opposition NP bloc)-
1. A. Cayetano* – Senate Minority leader
2. P. Cayetano -
3. Marcos-
4. Legarda*-
5. Villar*- Losing presidential contender.

Whatever their inclinations, the Senators will all want to appear open-minded and politically correct. More important, each would secretly love to be the swing vote.

On the above (amateur) handicapping there are 9 likely to convict, 9 undecided, and 5 unlikely. Only 8 are needed to acquit. If the Opposition votes together and, say,  brings in Lapid, Arroyo and Santiago, the game is over unless public opinion is so strong they will have to retreat.

The key to the public, the one they understand and the easiest to prove if at all, is the case for ill-gotten wealth even though, ironically, it is not specified in the Articles. If this is bullet-proof then we will have a new Chief Justice. Otherwise a conviction is challenging unless the CJ resigns.

The Year Of Living Dangerously

2011 was one of portentous changes, a gathering of clouds, possibly,  for the new year. Below were its milestones listed not necessarily by importance:

1. Financial Crisis- Money matters dominated most of the year. In the summer the U.S. lost its coveted AAA credit rating and, in a game of Republican political brinkmanship, came dangerously close to defaulting on its debt when Congress delayed an increase in the country’s debt ceiling.
Europe was not far behind. Its leaders spent the year staving off creeping defaults in Greece, then in Italy and Spain, with Portugal and Ireland on the periphery. The euro narrative has still to fully unfold. Stay tuned.

2.  The Arab Spring- This was the good story of 2011. After years of Western supported repressive regimes, the citizens of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria decided they had had enough. Armed with little more than social media and mobile technology, the young and the middle class took to the streets to overthrow their leaders. The West hopes the Governments that emerge will follow the Turkish secular model but a slide to greater Islamism is very real with consequences on the regional dynamics.
In the first instance of Second World countries exporting their social models, the Arab Spring morphed into the Occupy Movement in the West. Clearly, anger is not the monopoly of any one people.

3.The fall of Bin laden, the U.S. exit from Iraq- These two events marked the end of Part I of the War on Terror. Part II could well see the loss of many of the gains as well as its transformation from a fight against terrorist cells to geopolitical disturbance among nations in the Muslim sphere. With its growing nuclear capability (experts are giving it nine months), strategic location on the Strait of Hormuz, and the vacuum created by the American withdrawal in Iraq, however partial, Iran will take center stage. An already nuclear Pakistan is another hot spot. At stake is the stability of a region on which the world depends for oil. A spike in oil prices will tip already fragile economies into recession.

4. The Fukushima tsunami- Climate change reared its ugly head in this community reminding us what happens when Nature meets Man’s inventions (the nuclear reactor): Nature always wins. In the Philippines, Sendong told a similar story, that you can rape the land because it is helpless but it ultimately  exacts its revenge. The environment will, I suspect, be the big story in 2012.
Fukushima had its silver lining: It unleashed a kindness among its population and an outpouring from outside, demonstrating the power of the human spirit.

5. China is the man- Despite growing inflation and a slowing economy, China is coming onto its own especially given the problems of the U.S. and Europe. Will the country tread softly in its new role of world financier and co-leader or will it play the heavy?

6. The death of Kim Jong Il- The passing away of the North Korean leader removes a potentially nuclear thorn from the belly of the region. The question is whether the country will retreat further into itself or open up to the world. All will depend on China.

In the Philippines:

1. The confinement of GMA- A year ago nobody would have bet on GMA being where she is today, least of all herself. That she and her family did not exit when the coast was clear remains the $64 million question. This sometimes happens when one forgets the world has changed.

2. The impeachment of the SC Chief Justice- The same may be said of Justice Corona, the being where he is. Whatever its merits or demerits, the impeachment is a useful exercise in public accountability. For the longest time we asked ourselves: Who judges the judges? Now, at least, we know.

3. The Senate Blue Ribbon Committee- The Senate investigation is significant because of the magnitude of the personalities and the transactions. It is the first serious attempt to bring clarity to alleged big time corporate wrongdoing. Its success will bolster the business climate and prove the Administration’s house cleaning is not all politically motivated and includes white collar crime which has largely been spared.

In 2011 the world was reminded of the precariousness of its financials, its environment and its security. Followers of Nostradamus, the Mayans and the universe believe last year was a harbinger, that 2012 will see a painful purge followed by a new dawn. Maybe we are indeed due for a catharsis even though the outcome especially for those currently at risk; will not be pretty.

2011: The Year Of The Individual

2011 will be remembered as the year individuals made a difference.

A year ago a Tunisian fruit vendor called Mohamed Bouazizi, 26, went to the local Government office and set himself on fire. The authorities had been hounding him daily for bribes and finally seized his pushcart and contents. The event went viral launching  the Arab Spring that took down Tunisian leader Ben Ali, Egyptian President Mubarak and Mohamed Gaddhafi of Libya. The personal if tragic gesture of one individual morphed into a collective consciousness that toppled oligarchs, something international pressure had failed to do for decades.

In India, one man, Anna Hazare, went on hunger strike to protest the corruption in the system. He attracted a following of thousands forcing the Government to introduce an Anti-Corruption Law that while meek has brought awareness to the issue.

In Russia, an anti-corruption blogger, Alexei Navalny, is credited for the protest movement now taking place against the reportedly rigged parliamentary elections, threatening the presidential election of Vladimir Putin.

In Wall Street and in world cities, an Occupy Movement has flowered to protest the wrongdoings of bank and corporate executives and the growing gap between the wealthy 1 percent and the 99 percent that make up hard working people.

In the Philippines three individuals- Teddy Casiño, Liza Masa and Carol Araullo- filed a complaint against GMA on the ZTE deal. It became the basis for criminal charges by the Ombudsman. This is significant not so much for the allegations but for the fact the Ombudsman, for the first time in memory, has given voice to ordinary citizens wishing to make the equivalent of a citizens’ arrest. This will encourage other civic-minded individuals to take similar action on issues of national import.

Time magazine voted these “Protesters” as Man of the Year. A UK reader sent me a headline of The Daily Telegraph’s year-end edition: “Corrupt Elites Are Being Named And Shamed- By The People”.

In the Philippines, the origin of People Power, Noynoy Aquino, a President but an individual nonetheless, has vowed to transform our society.

The initiative started unsteadily with the formation of the Truth Commission, a body that it was hoped would bypass the ineffectiveness of the judicial process to prosecute corruption. In fact it was a legal eunuch that lacked the power of enforcement. It was subsequently declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.

Ironically it was the demise of the Commission that was the genesis for the resignation of the Ombudsman, Merceditas Gutierrez, the hold order on GMA and the current move to impeach the SC Chief Justice.

Had the Commission taken its legally ineffectual course, it would have been mired in administrative delays and fact-finding struggles even today. Its abolishment forced Malacanang to face head on the problems of the Judiciary starting with the impeachment of Ms. Gutierrez. Its success in getting her to resign and the favorable public reaction, emboldened the Administration to challenge the Supreme Court in the GMA TRO matter and now to seek the removal of the highest judge of the land.

In a separate but parallel track, the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee led by two Senators-Enrile and Osmeña- is looking to unearth seeming corporate wrongdoings in the Philex, MRT and other mega-transactions.

The Committee’s probe is principally “in aid of legislation” and, like the Truth Commission, lacks the legal teeth to prosecute. As a collegial body, it is also restricted by political considerations. What it does have, however, is the liberty of discovery on national television, unrestrained by court rules of evidence to uncover complex business structures- offshore hedge funds, nominee shell companies, directed trusts- and schemes. The information so gathered may be used by the Ombudsman and, for that matter, any individual(s) who understands the issues and can present them in a fully-formed narrative; to file plunder charges against the suspects, a non-bailable offense (R.A. 7080 defines plunder as ill-gotten wealth of over P50 million in a pattern of behavior). As in the ZTE case, regular citizens have now been empowered to bring wrongdoers to justice.

This is the story of 2011: That ordinary people doing extraordinary things can make ours a better place. This may take the form of action against social, corporate, political or criminal injustice; or it may take the form, simply, of love and respect for one another, the remembrance of small kindnesses that make for a gentler society. Witness the coming together of the Japanese following the tsunami.

The story is the power of one, one act, one voice that collectively can be a clamor against repression or a chorus of our humanity. Either way it is inspiring to behold.

Thanks, Guys

The outpouring from the Philweb libel case against me has been humbling.

A gentleman whose pregnant daughter is battling cancer to save the baby and the mother; called from the hospital to express his unqualified support. Where does he get the emotional strength? What is a libel case compared to this?

Parties known and unknown to me have offered their prayers, wishes and resources, meager or much, for the defense.

People of reach promise to watch over me. God has still to call in.

The suit is ironical in three respects. One, rather than smother the story, it revived it. It transformed a blog with a modest audience into a ’cause celebre’. Those unaware of the subject are now following it and rooting.

Two, I (and, I suspect, my readers) had gotten tired of writing about Mr. Ongpin and had turned to other more weighty subjects like the potential collapse of the euro (“A Financial Armageddon?) and the Supreme Court issue ( “A Group Hug Everybody”). The suit now returns him to my doorstep.

Three, the trial could allow for the open discovery in court of the facts and the protagonists in the Philex, MRT, Petron, and Meralco  transactions, information the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee is struggling to obtain. Through the coercive court process, this information could be efficiently unearthed, unfettered by political considerations. In a media spectacle, the accused could become the accuser.

I do not nor care to present the technicalities of libel especially since the complaint is really no longer about me nor Mr. Ongpin. It is now about freedom of expression,  the affirmation of beliefs, and the public’s right to know.

I do not have to do what I do. I started this blog just prior to the 2010 elections because I felt the time was right and necessary for this nation to change. The possibility, I wrote then, of a President, Noynoy, who was honest could be the beginning of a journey of promise. I wanted to walk with him in this path.

For a while no media group thought my work worthy, I considered stopping, baying in the wilderness can be tiring; until ABS-CBN asked to carry me, at my request without contract or compensation.

My contribution, I am told, is the ability to present complex business and economic issues with clarity, insight, education and independence. My guideline is to call it as I see it. When frustrated or bored, I admit to occasionally succumbing to silliness for which I seek my readers’ indulgence.

My blog in a sense is not about what is said or how, but about what is possible, that any voice however small will at some time resonate. Every Filipino should therefore not fear to speak in support of a calling or in the presence of injustice whether in his daily life or in national issues of import.

There are those who will seek to muffle us, particularly the weaker ones, by whatever means. What they do not understand is they are in the wrong end of history. The time is no longer when the clamor for truth can be suppressed. People see in the case against me a test of this premise.

My wife says, “Consider you have been given the honor to be a vessel of change. God chooses to give people only an opponent of their worth.” (Now you know why I married her). There must be easier ways to be honored but, I guess, what is, is.

There is no greater force, it is said, then the power of an idea whose time has come. I suggest this time is upon us.

And this is the idea: That a nation is defined by the strength of its values; that these values are the sum of our individual behavior like love, work, and respect for our neighbors; that people are essentially good; that good trumps evil; that justice is not for sale; and that the ultimate measure is not what is necessarily legal but what is right and true.

I sense the winds of change in this country. With P-Noy there is now a breath of fresh air billowing in the plain, the feeling that we are finally embarking on a voyage of transformation. But this journey needs each of us to stand up for our beliefs and to contribute to the collective good, in the Marxian phrase, according to our abilities.

The road can be arduous and lonely, the road less travelled always is, but we must endure because the end is worthwhile. We must believe we can become the nation we want to be, better than we are.

Merry Christmas to all and again, thank you.

(P.S. This blog will go to hibernation for the rest of the holidays)

Philweb Complaint

philweb v alejandrino

Statement On Philweb Suit

The following is a statement I released to media on the Philweb suit:

“I have been sued for libel by Philweb, a company controlled by Bobby Ongpin and 26% by E-PLDT; for things I have written in my blog Wired (http://leoalejandrino.wordpress.com).

The case is sub-judice so I cannot get into the details. The complaint is public as are my blogs so people can access them.

In fact the suit is not about me nor my modest blog but about bigger issues like the responsibility of citizens to speak when they see something improper and for the public’s right to know. The suit is about the contest for an ideal.

This is my message to both Bobby Ongpin and to Manny Pangilinan, perhaps more to Manny since Bobby is upset with me for being disrespectful to him. I apologize to Bobby if I disrespected him since nobody deserves to be disrespected.

Therefore to Manny: The suit Philweb has filed against me does not make any sense to Bobby, you nor the corporations you represent. Never have I disparaged the company. I simply warned unsuspecting investors of the risks in investing in an entity whose principal shareholder is being investigated by the authorities but whose business depends on dealings with Government, PAGCOR in particular. This combination is not good.

My blog is my response to President Aquino’s call for individual responsibility. You may be able to shut me up but for every one of us down others will rise and rise. I will not start a movement but I have seen the anger at the injustice to me and not only from friends and relatives.

So I ask Philweb to consider withdrawing its suit. I apologize to Bobby if I  disrespected him but I will continue to write things as I see them, without malice, and with education.”

The Board of Directors  of Philweb:

Roberto Ongpin, Chairman; Ray Espinosa (E-PLDT), Vice-Chairman; Dennis Valdes, President; Eric Recto; Delfin Wenceslao; Rafael Ortigas; G.Tan; Mario Oreta; Mario Locsin; R. Creager; C. Ehrlich; Mariano Galicia; Benito Araneta; Tomas Alcantara; Ramon Ang.

A Group Hug Everybody

The nation’s Christmas wish is for P-Noy and Chief Justice Corona to friend each other.

Either that or take their differences outside.

What we don’t want is the spectacle of the heads of our two branches of Government going at each other. We have enough problems with poverty, crime and the pursuit of happiness without having to mediate a spat that is disconcerting and getting out of hand.

The Executive Branch has its litany of discourtesies: the midnight appointment of Corona, the dismantling of the Truth Commission, blocking the impeachment of the then Ombudsman, the TRO on GMA’s travel, etc. Should the Court now rule unfavorably against the constitutionality of the Comelec/DOJ panel on electoral sabotage, P-Noy will tear what remains of his hair. (Would Filipinos accept such an outcome and march on the Justices; and will the Executive protect them, the Justices I mean?)

The Court is a co-equal branch of Government with a mandate to protect  the Constitution. It believes the Executive is interfering with its work, even seeking  to control its budget.

It says it is about the Rule of Law. Yes, but what Law?

P-Noy –and probably the majority of the people- believes there is a law that supersedes man-made statutes and that is natural law. This thesis proclaims there is a Greater Good, that morality and justice –even common sense- cannot always be bound by the narrow confines of the legislated word and its appendages however studied, that where there is smoke there is fire, that if something walks and talks like a duck, it is a duck. In the GMA instance, the sense of wrongdoing is of such scale that to allow her flight would be an injustice to the nation and worth dispensing with the fine print.

Constitutionalists say this persuasion opens a juridical black hole. When is illegal legal, when 51% of the people say so? Will every SC petition be a referendum? In the GMA case are we into a lynch mob? (Let us not put that to a vote because the outcome may surprise). Should Pulse Asia, the polling company, run this country?

P-Noy argues GMA will have her day in court. He only asks that Filipinos also have theirs. If GMA were to leave it would be impossible to physically arraign her, a precondition, under the law, for her to be tried. The country would then be deprived its occasion for justice.

The Palace believes, rightly or wrongly, the majority of the Court, all GMA appointees, are her lackeys. If the SC rules unfavorably on the Comelec/DOJ panel, GMA & Co. will be out of here faster than you can say Money, Money, Money; in a private plane to anywhere.

To forestall this P-Noy has taken his case to the public in no uncertain terms. He may have been disrespectful but niceties are superseded by the urgency to be loud and clear. The Filipino, he feels, needs to know and know now.

What are the ways out of the impasse?

First, dial down the rhetoric. The President has heralded his position. No need to get to Fail Safe, the point where decisions are irreversible and differences irreconcilable.

Two, do not make it personal to the Chief Justice. Corona is only one of the majority Justices. In the Luisita case, even P-Noy’s appointees voted with this majority.

Three, check the egos at the door: Each should recognize his failings while understanding the rightness of the other. The current crisis is partly because of the Administration’s tardiness in filing charges against GMA. It says the dissolution of the Truth Commission a year ago caused the delay but nobody is listening. At the same time Justices should inhibit themselves in potential conflicts.

Four, develop a Plan B. The Ombudsman should immediately act on the three non-bailable plunder charges filed against GMA; to back up the electoral fraud case. The Government should play all the numbers.

Five, gather a Council of Elders (composed say of FVR, Corona’s former boss; JPE, the Senate President; ex-CJ Art Panganiban and Wash Sycip) to mediate the quarrel. The Church should be excluded as it has it RH ax to grind.

Six, the people should speak up, if necessary in the streets.

The Filipino wants the issue resolved so we can punish the politicians, corporate raiders and murderers who have repeatedly raped this nation. It would be doubly tragic if these villains now also  succeeded in getting our leaders to devour each other.

So in the spirit of the season let us, everybody, have a group hug and move on. There is work to be done.

A Financial Armageddon?

The bad news is the world financial system is possibly at the brink of collapse.

Events in Europe are rapidly unraveling. What started as a containable crisis in Greece, an economy that accounts for only 2.5% of Euro GDP, now threatens all of Euroland.

A run has been defined as a self-fulfilling destruction of confidence. In Europe there is a run on the debt of banks and of nations. Italy and Spain’s 10-year debt is trading at over 7% interest, Portugal’s 14% and Greece’s over 30% (versus the risk-free rate of 2% and the Philippine’s 6.5%), the sign they are in trouble.

These countries overspent and over-borrowed. Unfortunately, they cannot devalue their currency, the euro, to become competitive (just like say California cannot devalue the dollar to help itself). Their only prescription is to cut spending and raise taxes but this is killing their economies in the classic debt trap. The cure is arguably worse than the disease.

The euro problems have global consequences. Banks worldwide have exposure to European banks so if the latter fail so will they. Europe is a major export market so when it tanks so will the rest of the world. Global finances are tied at the hip.

The safe havens in this doomsday scenario are the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and gold. The Swiss franc was a refuge until the country set a ceiling against the euro. Over the long term, even the U.S. and Japan are vulnerable with their own record debt and deficits. In the contagion one can run but one cannot hide.

The good news is that the world financial system is at the brink of collapse.

The consequences are so dire that European leaders are concluding, although not rapidly enough, a “shock-and-awe’ solution is needed to save the system. This means two things: One, in the short term for the European Central Bank, directly or via the IMF, to provide unlimited liquidity by acting as the lender of last resort to banks and Governments. This is termed the “monetary solution”. Two, in the medium term for the Euro nations to adhere to a common standard of good behavior by unifying their tax and budgetary policies. This is called the “fiscal solution”.

In a game of brinksmanship, Germany, Euroland’s financial godfather, has said it will not trigger the monetary solution without agreement on the fiscal. Here is where politics come in. The fiscal solution requires countries sacrificing their sovereignty on spending and taxes which they are reluctant to do. However, to remain in the euro they may have just to accede, effectively handing their economic destiny to Germany, the keeper of the purse. The latter may finally achieve what it failed to do in two world wars.

Stock markets have recently rallied on the premise Europe is too big to fail. A crucial date is Dec. 9 2011 when the 17 Euro nations meet to agree on a panacea. If, as expected, it just results in more waffling, we will move that much closer to the precipice.

What is the impact on the Philippines of a doomsday?

The peso will weaken as investors flee to the dollar. The stock market will collapse.

In the medium term we will see a drop in OFW remittances especially from Europe, weaker exports and a likely recession. A devalued peso will import inflation. Banks will hunker down leading to a contraction in credit particularly to smaller businesses. Unemployment will rise with its social and security implications.

Over the longer term, we may have difficulty refinancing our foreign debt. If investment grade countries like Italy (A) are suffering, the Philippines with its sub-investment grade (BB+) cannot be far behind. This means higher taxes and reduced Government spending, the path of the debt trap. Our projected deficit of P 285 billion will be unsustainable, tempting the Government to print money.

What does a worldwide meltdown look like? It starts with a chain of sovereign defaults. This will bring down banks holding this debt, credit default swaps and other derivatives of mass destruction. Everything comes to a standstill: Unsure of who will fail, banks stop dealing with each other. They cut loans to businesses. Investors dump assets triggering margin calls and further drops. Exchanges stop trading. There is a run on the smaller banks. We are back to barter.

An Armageddon seems inconceivable but I have stopped being surprised. The base scenario is still for more muddling through, increasing volatility and exhausted players heading for the exit; but any spark could trigger the conflagration.

The solution is with Europe’s political leaders who have been behind the curve throughout the crisis.

Maybe the threat of extinction will finally get them to move.

Dear Santa

It’s that time of the year. Below are the Christmas wishes received so far by Santa:

Greece- That 1.3 billion Chinese visit the Acropolis next year to wipe out its $450 billion debt.

Italy- That 1.3 billion Chinese and 1.2 billion Indians visit the Fountain of Trevi to wipe out its $2.6 trillion debt.

Germany- That the Chinese buy Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (Prada, Gucci and Hermes will then be ‘Made in China’).  Alternatively, that China join the euro.

Barack Obama- That Perry, Gingrich, Bachmann, Cain or anybody else except Romney become the Republican nominee for the coming Presidential elections. Alternatively, that the Chinese buy half of America by offsetting it against the money owed them.

Atty. Ferdinand Topacio, lawyer of Mike Arroyo- For a padded box to hold his “family jewels” if ever.  Alternatively, for a Belo gift certificate to replace his diminished personal assets.

Atty. Raul Lambino, another lawyer of the ex-First Couple– For the intelligence of Estelito Mendoza. Alternatively, for the Arroyo retainer checks not to bounce.

Bobby Ongpin- That somebody buy his shares in Atok Big Wedge at its current ‘price ‘ of P 24. This values his company, a shell with no operations, at P 62 billion or 62 times its book value (and inveigled Forbes into listing him as a dollar billionaire). Alternatively, that Senators Enrile and Osmena take a leave of absence until 2016.

Jojo Manalo, secretary of Ongpin- For a fraction of the shares he has put in her name but which she has had to endorse back to him. Alternatively, for Sen. Osmeña not to visit her at the hospital.

Ashmore Investment- For Mike Arroyo to forget he has money with them. Alternatively, for Ongpin to forget he has money with them.

Rey David- For an industrial strength helmet for when Senator Enrile “cracks his head”. Alternatively, for a neck brace for the number of times he will have to turn his head to see who is after him (Now unnecessary, GMA may gift him with hers).

The Ampatuans- That the GMA controversy continues so they can be left in peace.

Manny Pangilinan- That the Blue Ribbon Committee not ask him to testify in the Philex matter. Alternatively, that DBP sell him its Philex shares at P 12.75 rather than the P 21.00 he had to pay.

Senator Enrile- That Bobby Ongpin and Rey David stop insulting his intelligence.

Senator Osmeña- That the nation know how badly and how often it has been taken to the cleaners by a bevy of bandits. Alternatively, that the Sandiganbayan know this as well.

The Opposition- For a new Sugar Mommy.

Presidential Spokesperson Lacierda- For his foot to taste better, the one he occasionally puts in his mouth.

DOJ Secretary Leila de Lima-That everybody stop saying she is running for the Senate. Alternatively, for Supreme Court spokesperson Midas Marquez to take her on a hot date.

Midas Marquez, SC spokesperson- For de Lima to not ask him for a hot date. Alternatively, that it be just coffee at Starbucks.

Pasay RTC Judge Mupas- For a million dollar life policy. Alternatively, for a really good private banker.

St. Luke’s- That GMA agree to be the face for their new marketing campaign: “St.Luke’s. When everything else fails”.

SC Chief Justice Rene Corona- For a Thank You note and the Order of Sikatuna from President Aquino for years of invaluable service to the nation. Alternatively, the Order alone will do just fine.

The eight majority Justices- For a TRO on the claim they are anti-Filipino.

The five minority Justices- For a victory, anywhere, in their lifetimes. Alternatively, for just one Solicitor General petition they can hit out of the park.

Filipinos with SC cases – Like the GMA petitions, that the Court resolve their thousands of pending cases in one week (Why does she get to jump the queue?).

The Solicitor General- For the GMA SC petitions to get behind the line, just like everybody else’s.

Mike Arroyo- For the clock to turn back 24 months and stay there. Alternatively, that Sec. de Lima accidentally strangle herself with one of her fashionable scarves.

Gloria Arroyo- For Annie Leibovitz to take her head shots. Alternatively, for a weekend in Singapore.

P-Noy- For a stylish, intelligent girl under 30 he can take home to his sisters. She must have affinity for ballistics and fast cars and working knowledge of Playstation 3. Alternatively, for three Justices to add to his five to assure a permanent majority in the Supreme Court.

The Filipino- For some measure of justice and redemption.

Santa will be busy.